Time to Add a Gold Stock – But Which One?

It's getting time to add a gold stock to the Seasonal Forecaster portfolio. But which one?

With gold having been in a 3-year bear market, I'm not likely to select a stock based on fundamentals. No, this is going to be based primarily on charts.  It's the strength in the gold sector, relative to the overall market, that is offering up a potential turnaround situation.

Gold tends to move in longer-term trends. Identifying a change in the major trend is the key to successful investing in this sector.

The difficulty, once a change in the trend is identified, is in picking the best trade candidate(s). I have a few gold stock candidates I'm researching, aiming to pick one to add to the newsletter portfolio. Now I just have to narrow down the list.

I am down to several stocks and all of them have similar charts – a good rally since the start of this year followed by recent consolidation. So it's time to apply one more filtering technique, to try and raise the odds of success of this trade as high as possible.

The name of the newsletter provides the answer – I will look at the seasonal patterns of each trade candidate.

Looking at trade candidate #1, I see that this gold stock has lost an average of 3.8% over the next 6 weeks. Out of the past 22 years, 14 have been losses, and several of them were double-digit losses:

6.17.16.1blogI might give recent years more emphasis, but even then, this stock has had some large losses as well as gains.

I then look at another trade candidate, again with a similar chart, and see the following seasonal pattern. Six weeks out it has averaged a 4.0% gain, with 9 out of 13 gains (62% Win/Total ratio). But if I focus on the 13 week timeframe, it gets even better.

This stock has averaged a 14.4% gain over the next 13 weeks, with gains in 11 out of 13 years, an 85% success rate:

6.17.16.2blogThis second chart tells me that whatever the reasons are, this particular stock is more likely to be the focus of institutional buying over the near term than the first stock. What attracted them to this stock in the past may bring them back again this year.

In today's newsletter I look at whether a higher probability trade setup exists right now for trade entry, and if not, what I will be looking for. But I have my trade candidate, and seasonal analysis helped me narrow down the choices.

Of course, there's much more you need to know and many more stocks you can capitalize upon each and every day.  To find out more, please click on the following link: www.markettamer.com/seasonal

By Gregg Harris, MarketTamer Chief Technical Strategist

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Gregg Harris is the Chief Technical Strategist at MarketTamer.com.

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The information presented in this site is not intended to be used as the sole basis of any investment decisions, nor should it be construed as advice designed to meet the investment needs of any particular investor. Nothing in our research constitutes legal, accounting or tax advice or individually tailored investment advice. Our research is prepared for general circulation and has been prepared without regard to the individual financial circumstances and objectives of persons who receive or obtain access to it. Our research is based on sources that we believe to be reliable. However, we do not make any representation or warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy of our research, the completeness, or correctness or make any guarantee or other promise as to any results that may be obtained from using our research. To the maximum extent permitted by law, neither we, any of our affiliates, nor any other person, shall have any liability whatsoever to any person for any loss or expense, whether direct, indirect, consequential, incidental or otherwise, arising from or relating in any way to any use of or reliance on our research or the information contained therein. Some discussions contain forward looking statements which are based on current expectations and differences can be expected. All of our research, including the estimates, opinions and information contained therein, reflects our judgment as of the publication or other dissemination date of the research and is subject to change without notice. Further, we expressly disclaim any responsibility to update such research. Investing involves substantial risk. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results, and a loss of original capital may occur. No one receiving or accessing our research should make any investment decision without first consulting his or her own personal financial advisor and conducting his or her own research and due diligence, including carefully reviewing any applicable prospectuses, press releases, reports and other public filings of the issuer of any securities being considered. None of the information presented should be construed as an offer to sell or buy any particular security. As always, use your best judgment when investing.

Past performance is no guarantee of future performance. This product is for educational purposes only. Practical application of the products herein are at your own risk and MarketTamer.com, its partners, representatives and employees assume no responsibility or liability for any use or mis-use of the product. Please contact your financial advisor for specific financial advice tailored to your personal circumstances. Any trades shown are hypothetical example and do not represent actual trades. Actual results may differ. Nothing here in constitutes a recommendation respecting the particular security illustrated.

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MarketTamer is not an investment advisor and is not registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission or the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority. Further, owners, employees, agents or representatives of MarketTamer are not acting as investment advisors and might not be registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission or the Financial Industry Regulatory.


This company makes no representations or warranties concerning the products, practices or procedures of any company or entity mentioned or recommended in this email, and makes no representations or warranties concerning said company or entity’s compliance with applicable laws and regulations, including, but not limited to, regulations promulgated by the SEC or the CFTC. The sender of this email may receive a portion of the proceeds from the sale of any products or services offered by a company or entity mentioned or recommended in this email. The recipient of this email assumes responsibility for conducting its own due diligence on the aforementioned company or entity and assumes full responsibility, and releases the sender from liability, for any purchase or order made from any company or entity mentioned or recommended in this email.


The content on any of MarketTamer websites, products or communication is for educational purposes only. Nothing in its products, services, or communications shall be construed as a solicitation and/or recommendation to buy or sell a security. Trading stocks, options and other securities involves risk. The risk of loss in trading securities can be substantial. The risk involved with trading stocks, options and other securities is not suitable for all investors. Prior to buying or selling an option, an investor must evaluate his/her own personal financial situation and consider all relevant risk factors. See: Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. The www.MarketTamer.com educational training program and software services are provided to improve financial understanding.


The information presented in this site is not intended to be used as the sole basis of any investment decisions, nor should it be construed as advice designed to meet the investment needs of any particular investor. Nothing in our research constitutes legal, accounting or tax advice or individually tailored investment advice. Our research is prepared for general circulation and has been prepared without regard to the individual financial circumstances and objectives of persons who receive or obtain access to it. Our research is based on sources that we believe to be reliable. However, we do not make any representation or warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy of our research, the completeness, or correctness or make any guarantee or other promise as to any results that may be obtained from using our research. To the maximum extent permitted by law, neither we, any of our affiliates, nor any other person, shall have any liability whatsoever to any person for any loss or expense, whether direct, indirect, consequential, incidental or otherwise, arising from or relating in any way to any use of or reliance on our research or the information contained therein. Some discussions contain forward looking statements which are based on current expectations and differences can be expected. All of our research, including the estimates, opinions and information contained therein, reflects our judgment as of the publication or other dissemination date of the research and is subject to change without notice. Further, we expressly disclaim any responsibility to update such research. Investing involves substantial risk. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results, and a loss of original capital may occur. No one receiving or accessing our research should make any investment decision without first consulting his or her own personal financial advisor and conducting his or her own research and due diligence, including carefully reviewing any applicable prospectuses, press releases, reports and other public filings of the issuer of any securities being considered. None of the information presented should be construed as an offer to sell or buy any particular security. As always, use your best judgment when investing.