A Sure Bet in Oil Services?


For the next several weeks, Q4 earnings will be the driving factor with most stocks. However it is also the beginning of the year. The country is mid-way through winter and institutional traders start thinking about the companies whose business activity and revenue pick up going into the warmer months.

You would expect agricultural stocks to have track records of gains over the next several months, and they do. Customers buy more Caterpillar (CAT) and Deere (DE) construction and farming equipment when the ground isn't frozen solid. So it isn't surprising that over the next 15 weeks, CAT has gained an average 9%, with gains in 24 out of the past 30 years (80%).

It also shouldn't be surprising that the energy sector picks up going into the warmer months. The Oil Services HOLDRS ETF (OIH) has been in existence for only 12 years, but it has a 100% track record of gains over the next 15 weeks:

The fund is heavily weighted towards the two top holdings – Schlumberger (SLB), at 20% of OIH's assets, and Haliburton (HAL) at 11.9% of the assets. Looking at the seasonal charts of both stocks we see a similar track record to OIH. However, both Schlumberger and Haliburton are due to report earnings in the next two weeks. Taking any position in their stocks before earnings will be higher risk. It is best to wait until after they report and see how their announcements are received.

It would be lower risk to trade the ETF itself, as the market movements of the individual component stocks will be averaged out. Does the OIH have a good technical setup?

On the daily chart, OIH has pulled back to December lows. Actually, OIH set slightly lower lows. But Friday's 1.5% up-move on above-average volume may have formed a ‘W' bottom, and may be the start of a rebound. Also, there is a bit of divergence with the Stochastics – it formed a higher low, indicating the stock has recently been closing in the upper part of each day's range.

OIH is currently sitting just above the 200-day moving average (not shown above), which should provide support. And looking at OIH's similar recent pullbacks, the current pullback seems to be of similar extent and duration and may be ready to end.

Of course, there's much more you need to know and many more stocks you can capitalize upon each and every day.  To find out more, including the answer to the above question, type in www.markettamer.com/seasonal-forecaster

By Gregg Harris, MarketTamer Chief Technical Strategist

Copyright (C) 2013 Stock & Options Training LLC

Unless indicated otherwise, at the time of this writing, the author has no positions in any of the above-mentioned securities.

Gregg Harris is the Chief Technical Strategist at MarketTamer.com with extensive experience in the financial sector.

Gregg started out as an Engineer and brings a rigorous thinking to his financial research. Gregg's passion for finance resulted in the creation of a real-time quote system and his work has been featured nationally in publications, such as the Investment Guide magazine.

As an avid researcher, Gregg concentrates on leveraging what institutional and big money players are doing to move the market and create seasonal trend patterns. Using custom research tools, Gregg identifies stocks that are optimal for stock and options traders to exploit these trends and find the tailwinds that can propel stocks to levels that are hidden to the average trader.

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