Hear Ye, Hear Ye: The Short Case for Tesla Blow by Blow

[1]  The quarter in which Tesla turned to profitability resulted from a one-time, non-cash warrant charge as well as a foreign exchange gain to show a bottom line profit of $11 million despite generating a $5 million operating loss.

[2]  Emission credits of $68 million supported results but how sustainable these credits are remains dubious.

[3]  Although Elon Musk purchased $100 million of stock it was sourced from a $150 million margin loan secured on his existing Tesla stock.

[4]  Analyst estimates for earnings have declined by over $2 in the last two years to just $0.02 per share.

[5]  Some analysts project that Tesla will grow from producing 20,000 vehicles to 500,000 over time.  This requires mass market penetration. With a $25,000 battery cost estimated for the Model S alone, mass market affordability seems unattainable given current prices.

[6]  Another $5-10 billion in capital expenditures would need to be invested to reach the 500,000 production level.

[7]  Tesla trades currently north of 20x operating assets (receivables, inventory & PP&E), a stunning valuation for an industrial company

[8]  Tesla trades at 32x book value compared to GM that trades at 1.7x book value.

 

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