Will Alcoa Get Canned?

Alcoa Inc (AA) will be kicking off the next earnings season when they release Q1 earnings today, after the market closes.

Ah, Alcoa's glory days. Back in January of 2014 their earnings didn't quite meet expectations, missing by $0.02. Their stock dropped 5.4% the next day. However, it quickly rebounded, gaining 23.3% over the next two weeks.

In April of 2014, Alcoa beat by $0.04. The stock gained 3.6% the next day and 6.3% over the next few weeks.

In July of 2014, Alcoa's earnings beat by $0.06. The markets rewarded the stock with a 5.7% gain the next day and 13% over the next few weeks.

But then storm clouds rolled in and Alcoa hasn't seen the sun. In October of 2014 Alcoa beat by $0.09. The stock lost 4.2% the next day and the stock was down as much as 16.1% over the next week.

In January of 2015 Alcoa beat by $0.06. The stock lost 2.3% the next day and traded sideways over the next few weeks.

Now lightning began to strike. In April of 2015, Alcoa beat by $0.02, but got singed by the market. Initially AA lost 3.4%, and then traded sideways over the next few weeks. But eventually the stock was down as much as 40.6%, which includes the July 2015 earnings release (Alcoa missed by $0.04, gained 0.9% the next day, but followed with a 25.9% loss, adding to April's losses).

The storm was not over. In October of 2015, Alcoa missed by $0.07, dropped 6.8% the next day, and eventually was down 26.7%.

And finally, in January of this year, Alcoa beat by $0.03, but the market offered no mercy. The stock dropped 9% the following day and eventually hit a 23.3% loss within a week.

So of the past six earnings releases from Alcoa, if you had shorted the stock at the open after the earnings release, you could have made at least 16%, and as much as 40%, after five out of the six earnings releases.

Will Alcoa produce another great shorting opportunity tomorrow morning? Apparently the directors of the company don't think so. Four different directors bought a total of 87,097 shares of the stock over the past six months, spending a total of $640,735.00.

Decide for yourself. Bloomberg has an article this morning with more insight: Alcoa Looking to Finally Break Metal Shackles as Earnings Sink

Of course, there's much more you need to know and many more stocks you can capitalize upon each and every day.  To find out more, please click on the following link: www.markettamer.com/seasonal

By Gregg Harris, MarketTamer Chief Technical Strategist

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MarketTamer is not an investment advisor and is not registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission or the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority. Further, owners, employees, agents or representatives of MarketTamer are not acting as investment advisors and might not be registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission or the Financial Industry Regulatory.


This company makes no representations or warranties concerning the products, practices or procedures of any company or entity mentioned or recommended in this email, and makes no representations or warranties concerning said company or entity’s compliance with applicable laws and regulations, including, but not limited to, regulations promulgated by the SEC or the CFTC. The sender of this email may receive a portion of the proceeds from the sale of any products or services offered by a company or entity mentioned or recommended in this email. The recipient of this email assumes responsibility for conducting its own due diligence on the aforementioned company or entity and assumes full responsibility, and releases the sender from liability, for any purchase or order made from any company or entity mentioned or recommended in this email.


The content on any of MarketTamer websites, products or communication is for educational purposes only. Nothing in its products, services, or communications shall be construed as a solicitation and/or recommendation to buy or sell a security. Trading stocks, options and other securities involves risk. The risk of loss in trading securities can be substantial. The risk involved with trading stocks, options and other securities is not suitable for all investors. Prior to buying or selling an option, an investor must evaluate his/her own personal financial situation and consider all relevant risk factors. See: Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. The www.MarketTamer.com educational training program and software services are provided to improve financial understanding.


The information presented in this site is not intended to be used as the sole basis of any investment decisions, nor should it be construed as advice designed to meet the investment needs of any particular investor. Nothing in our research constitutes legal, accounting or tax advice or individually tailored investment advice. Our research is prepared for general circulation and has been prepared without regard to the individual financial circumstances and objectives of persons who receive or obtain access to it. Our research is based on sources that we believe to be reliable. However, we do not make any representation or warranty, expressed or implied, as to the accuracy of our research, the completeness, or correctness or make any guarantee or other promise as to any results that may be obtained from using our research. To the maximum extent permitted by law, neither we, any of our affiliates, nor any other person, shall have any liability whatsoever to any person for any loss or expense, whether direct, indirect, consequential, incidental or otherwise, arising from or relating in any way to any use of or reliance on our research or the information contained therein. Some discussions contain forward looking statements which are based on current expectations and differences can be expected. All of our research, including the estimates, opinions and information contained therein, reflects our judgment as of the publication or other dissemination date of the research and is subject to change without notice. Further, we expressly disclaim any responsibility to update such research. Investing involves substantial risk. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results, and a loss of original capital may occur. No one receiving or accessing our research should make any investment decision without first consulting his or her own personal financial advisor and conducting his or her own research and due diligence, including carefully reviewing any applicable prospectuses, press releases, reports and other public filings of the issuer of any securities being considered. None of the information presented should be construed as an offer to sell or buy any particular security. As always, use your best judgment when investing.