Archived Blog

June 19th, 2010- Improve Your Market Timing: The Shooting Star Candlestick Pattern

Posted June 19, 2010 at 12:54 AM

·         The Shooting Star is essentially a single candle bearish reversal pattern but is enhanced in its’ interpretation if read as a three candlestick pattern.

·         The session prior to the Shooting Star should ideally be a long white bullish candle with a gap up to the shooting star candle.

·         The Shooting Star candle has a wick that is at least twice the length of the real body with little or preferably no wick to the downside.

·         If the Shooting Star candle is dark then it is a bit more bearish.

·         The longer the upside wick the better the probability of a strong reversal.

·         The reversal is confirmed when the stock gaps down after the Shooting Star session and trades down with a dark candle.

·         If large volume is associated with the Shooting Star candle it indicates that the investment community attempted to take the stock higher and the consensus of opinion was that the stock couldn’t justify the higher price level.

6-18-2010 4-48-02 PMShootingStar

June 12th, 2010- Improve Your Market Timing: The Morning Star Candlestick Pattern

Posted June 12, 2010 at 3:05 AM

·         The Morning Star candlestick pattern is the mirror image of the Evening Star except it is found at the bottom of a downtrend.

·         The pattern consists of three candles with the first candle being a long and dark followed by a gap down to a doji or Spinning Top and finishing with a gap up to a long white candle.

·         The second candle indicates indecision and the third and final candle in the formation confirms the bullish reversal.

·         The confirmation candle (The third candle) is much more convincing if it closes at least half way into the first long dark candle.

·         Increased volume on the second and third candle will also confirm that the sentiment is changing as the bulls take the upper hand.

·         The Evening and Morning Star candlestick formations are in my opinion two of the strongest reversal patterns in technical analysis.

·         The validity of the formation is strengthened when confirmed by other indicators such as support and resistance zones, trend lines, major moving averages and chart patterns.

6-11-2010 12-33-20 PMMorningStar

June 6th, 2010- Improve Your Market Timing: The Evening Star Candlestick Pattern

Posted June 6, 2010 at 1:08 AM

·         The Evening Star pattern is comprised of three candles.

·         The pattern is found at the top of a trading range after a bullish trend.

·         The first candle is a long white candle followed by a gap up to a doji or spinning top and then ideally another gap to the downside and trade down.

·         The third candle should trade at least half way down into the candle of the first session.

·         The longer the first and third candles, the stronger the formation.

·         The second candle needs to show extreme indecision as evidenced by a doji or a very small real body.

·         Volume should increase on the third candle as it trades down to confirm the reversal of market sentiment.

·         This formation is very powerful and has a high probability of success.

  • 6-4-2010 4-30-21 PMeveningStar
May 28th, 2010- Improve Your Market Timing: The Bullish Harami Candlestick Pattern

Posted May 29, 2010 at 2:30 PM

·         The Bullish Harami is a two candlestick reversal formation found at the bottom of a trend.

·         The first candle of the formation is a long dark candle and the second is white.

·         The open of the second candle is higher than the close of the first candle and the close is below the open of the first candle.

·         Western technical analysis refers to the formation as an “Inside Day” when the both the real body and the shadows of the second candle are “inside” the first candle.

·         The formation generally requires a follow through confirmation candle.

·         The formation is more powerful when both of the candles are longer as opposed to shorter.

·         The second candle can dictate the strength of the reversal of the formation by closing higher up into the first candle’s trading range.

·         The formation is more credible if associated with higher than normal volume.

5-28-2010 3-19-15 PMBullishHarami

May 22nd, 2010- Improve Your Market Timing: The Bearish Harami Candlestick Pattern

Posted May 22, 2010 at 2:57 PM

·         The Bearish Harami is a two session candlestick pattern.

·         The first session is a long white candle at the top of an uptrend.

·         The second candle gaps down from the prior session’s close and trades down forming a dark candle with the close higher than the prior candle’s open.

·         Western technical analysts refer to this pattern as an “Inside Day” because the price action of the second session is totally inside of the prior candle.

·         This pattern needs confirmation with a bearish follow through candle the next session.

·         Large candles bode for a more convincing reversal signal.

·         A close toward the bottom of the first candle is also a more compelling pattern.

·         Increased volume confirms that profit taking is underway and the bears are in control.

5-21-2010 5-43-09 PMBearishHarami

May 15th, 2010- Improve Your Market Timing: The Hammer Candlestick Pattern

Posted May 15, 2010 at 5:03 PM

·         The Hammer candlestick is a single session candle and is characterized by a small real body that closes in the upper 1/3 to 1/4 or the trading range of the session.

·         The shadow of the pattern should be at least twice the size of the real body and there should ideally by no upper shadow.

·         The candle is found at the bottom of a bearish trend and is more powerful if confirmed with other support.

·         The color of the real body is not critical, although a white body is somewhat more bullish.

·         A hammer on large volume at the bottom of a trend may be considered a capitulation day.

·         The reversal is much more likely when the shadow is relatively long as compared to the real body of the candle.

·         A gap down into the hammer and then a gap up, trade up on the follow through day is a very strong reversal signal.

·         The classic hammer indicates a change in trader sentiment because at one point during the trading session the candle was long and dark representing massive bearishness.  However, before the end of the day the bulls had pushed the stock back up to the top of the trading range on volume.

·         Bears should begin to question the continued downtrend and when the stock follows through to the upside the next day it becomes confirmation that the trend has reversed.

5-14-2010 11-06-55 AM.pngHammerPattern

May 8th, 2010- Improve Your Market Timing: The Hanging Man Candlestick Pattern

Posted May 8, 2010 at 9:57 PM

·         The hanging man is a single candlestick pattern found at the top of a bullish trend and indicates a reversal is imminent.

·         The name comes from the visualization of a man hanging depicted by a head and dangling legs.

·         The real body of the candle should be small and finish in the upper 1/3 to 1/4 of the day’s session.

·         The wick or shadow should be a least twice the length of the real body.

·         The candle should ideally have a “Shaven Head” with no shadow to the upside.

·         The color of the real body is slightly more bearish if it is dark as opposed to white.

·         The classic formation should occur with the Hanging Man gapping open to the upside on increased volume.

·         A gap down and trade down candle the following day will confirm the reversal.

·         At first glance, it may appear that the Hanging Man is a bullish candle because it closed higher than the previous day.  However, the fact that it is apparent that sellers are present as represented by the long shadow will usually convince those that are long to close and take profit which is evidenced by a bearish follow though day in the next session.

5-6-2010 3-24-27 PMHangingMan

April 30th, 2010- Improve Your Market Timing: The Bullish Engulfing Pattern

Posted May 4, 2010 at 6:31 PM

·         The Bullish Engulfing Pattern is a bullish reversal pattern and is considered a major candlestick formation.

·         The pattern is most effective when found at the bottom of a downtrend.

·         The pattern represents a change in investor sentiment and is characterized by an initial gap down from the prior trading day.

·         The stock will not follow through with the initial gap and will begin to trade up on increased volume.

·         The mature pattern will end the session with a close above the prior session’s open, thus engulfing the prior session’s real body.

·         The pattern is considered stronger when the stock trades up from a larger gap down and if it not only engulfs the real body but the entire trading range of the prior session.

·         Sometimes you will see a situation when the Bullish Engulfing Pattern wraps around and engulfs several prior sessions and that is a very convincing reversal scenario.

·         The Pattern is additionally effective when combined with a pre-defined level of support as represented by chart patterns, major moving averages, Fibonacci levels and trend lines.

·         Oscillators such as Stochastics or RSI can also confirm a changing sentiment from being oversold to becoming more bullish.

4-30-2010 10-22-54 AMBullishEngulfing

April 24th, 2010- Improve Your Market Timing: The Piercing Line Candlestick Pattern

Posted April 24, 2010 at 7:10 PM

   

  • The Piercing Line pattern is a two session pattern found in a bearish market.
  • The pattern is found in a bullish market and is generally considered a continuation pattern.
  • The candle will gap down and then proceed to trade up and close past the half way point of the previous bearish candle.
  • The pattern is even more convincing as a reversal when the stock recovers from a significant gap to the downside and trades up with increased volume.
  • The pattern is very similar to a Bullish Engulfing pattern but is not quite a bullish.
4-23-2010 4-31-25 PMmygnpiercingline1

 

4-23-2010 4-36-37 PMmygnpiercingline2

April 16th, 2010- Improve Your Market Timing: The Dark Cloud Cover Pattern

Posted April 16, 2010 at 7:19 PM

·         The Dark Cloud is a two candlestick pattern that is found at the top of a trend is bearish and warns us to “take out the umbrella” because a storm is brewing.

·         The Dark Cloud forms with an initial gap up above the prior day’s close and proceeds to trade down and close at least half way into the previous day’s bullish candle.

·         The Dark Cloud is a bearish reversal pattern and is enhanced if the move is accomplished with higher volume.

·         The Dark Cloud appears to be forming a Bullish Engulfing pattern but does not trade low enough to engulf the prior day’s candle and is not considered quite as bearish as an engulfing pattern.

·         The larger the bullish candle and the Dark Cloud candle, the more convincing the pattern becomes.

·         The Dark Cloud Cover is the inverse of the Piercing Line pattern.

4-16-2010 1-34-14 PMdarkcloud

April 9th, 2010- Improve Your Market Timing: The Doji Candlestick Pattern

Posted April 9, 2010 at 8:56 PM

·         The Doji occurs when the stock opens and closes at the same level.

·         It is an indication of major indecision in investment sentiment.

·         It is important that we interpret the Doji in the context of the market.

·         The Doji is a single candlestick pattern and is extremely powerful in foretelling a reversal.

·         There are many variations of the Doji- The Doji Star, The Long Legged or High Wave Doji, The Gravestone Doji and The Dragonfly Doji.  Each has a slightly different story to tell.

·         The primary message that the Doji sends is that there is a “Tug Of War” going on between the bulls and the bears.

·         When found at the top of a trend, it may be prudent to sell if you are long the market.

·         Dojis at the bottom of the trend although very significant require more confirmation for a reversal.

·         Dojis found in a sideways channel are not very significant

·         The market will not always reverse immediately after a Doji, but many times the reversal will occur very shortly thereafter.

·         Dojis specifically and Candlesticks in general are extremely powerful when used in conjunction with other technical indicators that confirm resistance and support.

 

4-9-2010 9-45-57 AMappledoji

April 3rd, 2010- Improve Your Market Timing: The Bearish Engulfing Pattern

Posted April 7, 2010 at 2:39 PM

 

We will spend the next several weeks analyzing Candlestick Patterns.  Candlesticks can on the face of it, be somewhat intimidating.  I think some of that is due to the names associated with the patterns and the seemingly endless number of patterns and how they should be applied.  In actuality, the candlestick contains the exact data that a traditional bar contains (open, high, low and close).

It is the visual nature of the candle makes it far superior to the bar chart.  Candles have been around for about 400 years and were first used in Japan by a family of legendary rice traders.  Through the years, patterns or configurations of candlesticks have emerged that can allow a trader to predict with a high degree of probability the reversal of a stock.  Candlesticks can be especially effective when used with western technical analysis.  So today, we will begin with the “Bearish Engulfing Pattern”

·         As with any candlestick pattern, you must read and interpret it in the context of the chart.  What I mean by that is that if a reversal pattern appears, you must have a trend to reverse.  If a pattern that is normally interpreted as a reversal pattern is found in the context of a sideways non-trending market, that pattern means little to nothing.

·         The Bearish Engulfing Pattern should be found at the top of an uptrend.

·         The candle begins by gapping up above the prior day’s close and then trading down so that the close is below the prior day’s candle.

·         It is only necessary to engulf the prior day’s real body but is even more convincing if the engulfing pattern encloses the high and low of the prior session.

·         There are times when the Bearish Engulfing Pattern will engulf several prior sessions which adds to the validity of the reversal.

·         The engulfing is more convincing when it occurs on increased volume which reflects the investment communities’ participation and sentiment on the move.

·         We always look for follow through on the move as evidenced by continuing bearish trading.

 

4-2-2010 11-46-38 AMjecbearengulf

March 27th, 2010- Improve Your Market Timing: Channeling Stocks

Posted April 7, 2010 at 2:38 PM

·         Stocks will typically channel 65-70% of the time.

·         There are essentially three types of channels; Ascending, Descending and Sideways.

·         The channel is comprised of two parallel trend lines which define support and resistance.

·         The trading opportunity is as a result of buying the bounce off the lower trend line and selling the resistance.

·         Channeling stocks as a continuation pattern occur as the stock trends and then consolidates for a period of time, only to eventually break out to resume the prior trend.

·         Ascending Channels are usually embedded in a broader downtrend and act as a respite to the primary downtrend.

·         Accordingly, Descending Channels are a respite in a broader uptrend and will more often than not resume the initial bullish trend after channeling.

·         Sideways Channels are considered consolidations before resuming the original trend.

·         The investment community recognizes that stocks neither go directly up nor down without pause.

·         A majority of trading activity resides in channels as supply and demand play “tug of war”.

·         Eventually traders will push the stock out of the range.

·         The quality of the breakout/breakdown move should be measured by the investor participation as evidenced by increased volume.

·         The opportunity to make money with channeling stocks are as a result of two approaches: 1) buy on the bounce off of the lower trend line and sell at the top of the channel at resistance and 2) Play the breakout/breakdown out of the channel.

3-26-2010 9-11-35 AMMOSchannel

March 20th, 2010- Improve Your Market Timing: The Double Top Chart Pattern

Posted April 7, 2010 at 2:36 PM

·         This is a bearish reversal pattern that appears at the top of a trend and is characterized by a peak followed by a pullback and then a second peak that stalls at the level of the first peak and then retraces.

·         The buyers at the top of the first peak were victims of buying from the “smart money” as they sold to the “not so smart money” at the top of the trading range.

·         These unfortunate buyers will usually hold, refusing to take a loss and waiting for the opportunity to unload the stock at a breakeven.

·         When that opportunity presents itself, at the second top, selling pressure increases and drives the stock lower.

·         Other knowledgeable traders who know that the “Double Top” will present an opportunity to short, will do so, thereby increasing the downward move.

 

3-19-2010 4-55-55 PMdoubletop

March 13th, 2010- Improve Your Market Timing: The Symmetrical Triangle Chart Pattern

Posted April 7, 2010 at 2:34 PM

·         The Symmetrical Triangle is a continuation pattern that is comprised of two symmetrically converging trend lines.  The continuation will normally be in the direction of the prior trend, although at times the pattern can reverse the trend.

·         The breakout usually occurs prior to the triangle reaching its apex and is strongest if that is the case.

·         The target is the trend line breakout/breakdown plus the length of the widest part of the triangle.

·         After the stock has moved either up or down relatively quickly and with increased volume, the stock then begins a period of pause as the stock moves sideways or with a slight retrace against the trend.

·         The initial trading in the period of pause consists of a wider amplitude and narrows as the upper and lower trend lines converge symmetrically.

·         The investment community is telling us that it is indecisive as to the continuing direction of the stock as the trading range narrows and finally breaks out to resume the trend.

3-12-2010 3-25-16 PMsymmetricaltriangle

March 6th, 2010- Improve Your Market Timing: The Cup & Handle Chart Pattern

Posted April 7, 2010 at 2:29 PM

·         The Cup & Handle is a bullish continuation pattern that starts with the stock pulling back after a bullish trend and forming a rounded bottom that resembles a cup.  It then ascends to form the backside of the cup and consolidates into a flag or handle.  The handle should ideally form at the level of the beginning of the downtrend on the front side of the cup but it is still a valid pattern even if the back lip of handle of the cup forms lower than the front lip.

·         The entry point is the high of the handle and the upside potential is usually measured by the depth of the cup added to the breakout point.

·         After pulling back and trading in a relatively tight pattern and forming a rounded bottom and then ascending to the consolidation handle, profit taking begins to appear as the stock flattens on deceasing volume.

·         The continuation of the bullish move occurs when the stock breaks above the high of the handle with increasing volume.

·         An astute trader will realize that the bearishness is temporary and the breakout represents the investment communities’ continuing participation in the longer term upside move.

3-5-2010 6-11-41 PMcup&handle

Improve Your Market Timing: The Descending Triangle Chart Pattern

Posted February 26, 2010 at 11:05 PM

  • This Pattern is the inverse of the Ascending Triangle and is a bearish continuation pattern.

 

  • The stock has formed consistent support as evidenced by several touches on the lower and basically horizontal trend line as the upper trend line posts consistently lower highs.

 

  • The selling pressure is evident as the trend lines converge and the breakdown point is the breach of the lower horizontal trend line on increasing volume.

 

  • The stock has repeatedly challenged the lower horizontal trend line which acts as support but has not breached the level.

 

  • Selling pressure is present as evidenced by the lower highs and are depicted by the converging upper trend line.

 

  • Eventually, the stock will usually break through the support n increasing volume and will continue its downside move.

2-26-2010 8-52-15 PMdescendingtriangle2

Improve Your Market Timing: The Double Top Chart Pattern

Posted February 21, 2010 at 12:25 PM

  • The buyers at the top of the first peak were victims of buying from the “smart money” as they sold to the “not so smart money” at the top of the trading range.
  • These unfortunate buyers will usually hold, refusing to take a loss and waiting for the opportunity to unload the stock at a break even.
  • When that opportunity presents itself, at the second top, selling pressure increases and drives the stock lower.
  • Other knowledgeable traders who know that the “Double Top” will present an opportunity to short, will do so thereby increasing the velocity downward move.

2-13-2010 10-30-18 AMqsftdoubletop

Improve Your Market Timing: The Ascending Triangle Chart Pattern

Posted February 20, 2010 at 10:45 AM

  • The Ascending Triangle is a bullish continuation pattern and is comprised of an upper trend line that is horizontal which acts as resistance and a lower trend line connecting higher lows and converging towards the upper trend line.
  • The pattern is found in a bullish market and is generally considered a continuation pattern.
  • The breakout point is above the horizontal upper trend line and the target move after the breakout is the widest part of the triangle added to the breakout point.
  • The stock begins to stagnate to the upside with wider range trading.  The upside trend line remains as strong resistance as the stock begins to put in higher lows.  The investment community is telling us that there is a diminishing desire to take the stock lower and the presence of a converging lower trend line bodes for an upside breakout above the upper trend line.
  • The buying pressure is evident as the stock puts in higher lows while stubbornly holding steady at the high of the range.
  • Eventually, the stock will break through and past the resistance to establish new highs on increased volume.

2-19-2010 5-39-35 PMascendtriangle

Charts Week Ending 2/5/2010

Posted February 6, 2010 at 7:40 PM

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